CA Tigre vs Rosario Central

13 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.5 pp

CA Tigre

Rosario Central

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.6% DRAW 33.7% AWAY 39.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.6% 3.31 DRAW 33.2% 2.95 AWAY 37.2% 2.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Rosario Central relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.7% win probability, compared with 37.2% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Rosario Central has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Tigre Rosario Central

Shots 12.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 15.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Rosario Central, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Tigre Rosario Central

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Rosario Central has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Tigre Rosario Central

The combined recent performance profile favours Rosario Central.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

CA Tigre ↑ +0.51 (+18.1%)

Rosario Central ↓ -0.29 (-9.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.