CA Independiente vs San Lorenzo

14 Sep 2026 · 00:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

CA Independiente

San Lorenzo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.8% DRAW 33.4% AWAY 24.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.6% 2.21 DRAW 32.3% 3.05 AWAY 23.2% 4.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: San Lorenzo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Independiente San Lorenzo

Shots 13.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Independiente San Lorenzo

Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.0

San Lorenzo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Independiente San Lorenzo

The combined recent performance profile favours San Lorenzo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

CA Independiente ↑ +0.09 (+4.5%)

San Lorenzo ↓ -0.30 (-6.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.