Gimnasia Mendoza vs Boca Juniors

05 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Gimnasia Mendoza

Boca Juniors

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.7% DRAW 31.2% AWAY 41.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.1% 3.20 DRAW 31.0% 3.10 AWAY 38.9% 2.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Boca Juniors has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gimnasia Mendoza Boca Juniors

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 16.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Boca Juniors, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gimnasia Mendoza Boca Juniors

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Boca Juniors has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gimnasia Mendoza Boca Juniors

The combined recent performance profile favours Boca Juniors.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Gimnasia Mendoza ↓ -1.09 (-25.2%)

Boca Juniors ↑ +0.48 (+23.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.