Rosario Central vs Newell's

06 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Rosario Central

Newell's

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.4% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 11.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.3% 1.63 DRAW 26.6% 3.70 AWAY 13.1% 7.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Rosario Central has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rosario Central Newell's

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rosario Central Newell's

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Rosario Central has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rosario Central Newell's

The combined recent performance profile favours Rosario Central.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Rosario Central ↓ -0.05 (-3.0%)

Newell's ↑ +0.50 (+7.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.