Juarez FC (W) vs Tijuana (W)

27 Sep 2026 · 03:06

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Juarez FC (W)

Tijuana (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 75.9% DRAW 15.7% AWAY 8.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.6% 1.30 DRAW 17.5% 5.40 AWAY 9.9% 9.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Juarez FC (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 75.9% win probability, compared with 72.6% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Juarez FC (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Juarez FC (W) Tijuana (W)

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 7.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Juarez FC (W) Tijuana (W)

Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 0.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 6.8

Juarez FC (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Juarez FC (W) Tijuana (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Juarez FC (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Juarez FC (W) ↓ -0.20 (-13.3%)

Tijuana (W) ↑ +4.55 (+91.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.