Cruz Azul (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Cruz Azul (W)

Chivas Guadalajara (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% DRAW 25.0% AWAY 46.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.5% 3.05 DRAW 25.7% 3.62 AWAY 43.8% 2.12

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Chivas Guadalajara (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cruz Azul (W) Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 16.0 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Chivas Guadalajara (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cruz Azul (W) Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.3

Cruz Azul (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cruz Azul (W) Chivas Guadalajara (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Chivas Guadalajara (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cruz Azul (W) ↑ +0.20 (+7.0%)

Chivas Guadalajara (W) ↑ +0.02 (+1.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.