Toluca (W) vs Tijuana (W)

15 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Toluca (W)

Tijuana (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.7% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 18.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.9% 1.45 DRAW 19.8% 4.67 AWAY 16.2% 5.71

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Tijuana (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toluca (W) Tijuana (W)

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 6.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toluca (W) Tijuana (W)

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Tijuana (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toluca (W) Tijuana (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Tijuana (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Toluca (W) ↑ +0.03 (+2.1%)

Tijuana (W) ↑ +0.21 (+3.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.