Leon (W) vs Puebla (W)

08 Sep 2026 · 03:06

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Leon (W)

Puebla (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 82.0% DRAW 11.1% AWAY 6.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.8% 1.22 DRAW 13.0% 7.40 AWAY 8.2% 11.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Leon (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 82.0% win probability, compared with 78.8% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Leon (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leon (W) Puebla (W)

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leon (W) Puebla (W)

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 9.8

Leon (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leon (W) Puebla (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Leon (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Leon (W) ↑ +0.00 (+0.2%)

Puebla (W) ↑ +1.80 (+18.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.