Monterrey (W) vs Toluca (W)

06 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Monterrey (W)

Toluca (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.1% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 23.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.6% 1.86 DRAW 24.1% 4.05 AWAY 23.3% 4.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Monterrey (W) Toluca (W)

Shots 10.0 · On target 6.3 Shots 12.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Monterrey (W) Toluca (W)

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Monterrey (W) Toluca (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Monterrey (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

Toluca (W) ↑ +0.60 (+16.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.