Sarmiento vs Belgrano

13 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Sarmiento

Belgrano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.9% DRAW 32.9% AWAY 40.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.6% 3.40 DRAW 32.4% 3.00 AWAY 39.0% 2.49

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Belgrano has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sarmiento Belgrano

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 18.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Belgrano, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sarmiento Belgrano

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sarmiento Belgrano

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sarmiento ↑ +0.15 (+4.6%)

Belgrano ↑ +0.08 (+3.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.