Argentinos Jrs vs Gimnasia LP

13 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Argentinos Jrs

Gimnasia LP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.8% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 16.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.0% 1.78 DRAW 27.2% 3.60 AWAY 17.8% 5.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Argentinos Jrs

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Argentinos Jrs Gimnasia LP

Shots 13.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Argentinos Jrs Gimnasia LP

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Argentinos Jrs has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Argentinos Jrs Gimnasia LP

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Argentinos Jrs ↑ +0.03 (+1.7%)

Gimnasia LP ↑ +0.25 (+4.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.