Santa Catarina vs Marcilio Dias

13 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.7 pp

Santa Catarina

Marcilio Dias

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.4% DRAW 31.4% AWAY 29.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.7% 2.70 DRAW 31.2% 3.00 AWAY 34.1% 2.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Santa Catarina clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.4% win probability, compared with 34.7% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Santa Catarina has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santa Catarina Marcilio Dias

Shots 14.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 6.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Santa Catarina, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santa Catarina Marcilio Dias

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Santa Catarina has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santa Catarina Marcilio Dias

The combined recent performance profile favours Santa Catarina.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Santa Catarina ↑ +0.65 (+31.7%)

Marcilio Dias ↓ -0.60 (-17.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.