Joinville vs Hercilio Luz

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Joinville

Hercilio Luz

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 36.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.8% 2.65 DRAW 29.7% 3.20 AWAY 34.5% 2.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Hercilio Luz

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Joinville Hercilio Luz

Shots 6.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 13.0 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Hercilio Luz, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Joinville Hercilio Luz

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Joinville Hercilio Luz

The combined recent performance profile favours Hercilio Luz.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Joinville ↑ +0.20 (+8.2%)

Hercilio Luz ↑ +0.13 (+4.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.