Nacao vs Santa Catarina

06 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Nacao

Santa Catarina

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 13.9% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 61.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.3% 6.90 DRAW 24.2% 3.80 AWAY 62.5% 1.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santa Catarina

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nacao Santa Catarina

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 13.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nacao Santa Catarina

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nacao Santa Catarina

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Nacao ↑ +1.31 (+23.4%)

Santa Catarina ↓ -0.10 (-6.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.