Figueirense vs Nacao

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Figueirense

Nacao

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.1% DRAW 18.7% AWAY 8.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 73.8% 1.32 DRAW 18.6% 5.25 AWAY 7.7% 12.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Figueirense Nacao

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Figueirense Nacao

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Figueirense Nacao

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Figueirense ↓ -0.10 (-7.0%)

Nacao ↑ +4.55 (+55.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.