GD Lagoa vs Serpa

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.0 pp

GD Lagoa

Serpa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 28.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.4% 2.22 DRAW 29.4% 3.20 AWAY 28.1% 3.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Serpa

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

GD Lagoa Serpa

Shots 7.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Serpa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

GD Lagoa Serpa

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.8

GD Lagoa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

GD Lagoa Serpa

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

GD Lagoa ↑ +0.27 (+13.8%)

Serpa ↓ -0.05 (-1.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.