Sertanense vs AT Malveira

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Sertanense

AT Malveira

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 29.6% AWAY 36.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.8% 3.05 DRAW 29.4% 3.30 AWAY 38.8% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AT Malveira

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sertanense AT Malveira

Shots 3.8 · On target 1.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours AT Malveira, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sertanense AT Malveira

Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Sertanense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sertanense AT Malveira

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sertanense ↑ +1.30 (+74.3%)

AT Malveira ↓ -1.83 (-42.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.