Nova Cidade vs Goytacaz

26 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Nova Cidade

Goytacaz

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.9% DRAW 30.9% AWAY 35.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.6% 2.74 DRAW 30.6% 3.10 AWAY 34.8% 2.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Goytacaz

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nova Cidade Goytacaz

Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 8.3 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nova Cidade Goytacaz

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Goytacaz has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nova Cidade Goytacaz

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Nova Cidade ↑ +0.54 (+24.5%)

Goytacaz ↓ -0.31 (-10.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.