Tre Penne vs Juvenes/Dogana

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Tre Penne

Juvenes/Dogana

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.0% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 23.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.9% 1.97 DRAW 25.5% 3.70 AWAY 26.6% 3.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Tre Penne clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.0% win probability, compared with 47.9% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Tre Penne

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tre Penne Juvenes/Dogana

Shots 11.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tre Penne Juvenes/Dogana

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Tre Penne has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tre Penne Juvenes/Dogana

The combined recent performance profile favours Tre Penne.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Tre Penne ↑ +0.57 (+40.7%)

Juvenes/Dogana ↓ -1.95 (-35.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.