Florgrade FC vs AD Sanjoanense

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

Florgrade FC

AD Sanjoanense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.8% DRAW 29.0% AWAY 41.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.4% 2.80 DRAW 29.2% 3.20 AWAY 37.4% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for AD Sanjoanense relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.2% win probability, compared with 37.4% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AD Sanjoanense

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Florgrade FC AD Sanjoanense

Shots 6.0 · On target 1.5 Shots 17.3 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours AD Sanjoanense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Florgrade FC AD Sanjoanense

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Florgrade FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Florgrade FC AD Sanjoanense

The combined recent performance profile favours AD Sanjoanense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Florgrade FC ↑ +0.20 (+7.7%)

AD Sanjoanense ↑ +0.07 (+2.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.