Al Najma vs Al Raed

14 Sep 2026 · 19:20

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Al Najma

Al Raed

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.8% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 30.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.9% 2.41 DRAW 27.0% 3.47 AWAY 34.1% 2.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al Najma relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.8% win probability, compared with 38.9% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al Najma

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Najma Al Raed

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Al Najma, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Najma Al Raed

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Najma Al Raed

The combined recent performance profile favours Al Najma.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Al Najma ↑ +0.04 (+1.5%)

Al Raed ↑ +0.15 (+5.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.