Al-Ula vs Jeddah Club

14 Sep 2026 · 18:05

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Al-Ula

Jeddah Club

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 80.6% DRAW 13.2% AWAY 6.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.0% 1.21 DRAW 14.8% 6.40 AWAY 7.2% 13.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al-Ula relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 80.6% win probability, compared with 78.0% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Al-Ula has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al-Ula Jeddah Club

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Al-Ula, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al-Ula Jeddah Club

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Al-Ula has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al-Ula Jeddah Club

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Ula.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Al-Ula ↑ +0.02 (+1.3%)

Jeddah Club ↑ +3.10 (+31.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.