SP Domagnano vs SC Faetano

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

SP Domagnano

SC Faetano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.4% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 22.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.7% 1.76 DRAW 24.3% 3.75 AWAY 24.0% 3.79

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for SP Domagnano relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.4% win probability, compared with 51.7% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

SP Domagnano has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

SP Domagnano SC Faetano

Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours SP Domagnano, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

SP Domagnano SC Faetano

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 7.0

SP Domagnano has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

SP Domagnano SC Faetano

The combined recent performance profile favours SP Domagnano.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

SP Domagnano ↑ +0.51 (+40.8%)

SC Faetano ↓ -4.72 (-55.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.