Portugal Campeonato Nacional · PT

Guarda Desportiva vs AD Castro Daire

08 Nov 2026 · 16:00

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a slight model-market difference for an away win for AD Castro Daire. The difference indicates only a limited disagreement with market expectations.

Recent Performance

Recent match analysis is not yet available for this fixture. Additional context will appear as the underlying match data becomes available.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Pinnacle pre-match reference odds of 2.89 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 2.98. At this price, an away win for AD Castro Daire does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · PINNACLE

HOME

Guarda Desportiva

STOCHASTICBET 36.9%

PINNACLE 39.6% odd 2.26

DIFFERENCE -2.6 pp

DRAW

Draw

STOCHASTICBET 29.5%

PINNACLE 29.5% odd 3.03

DIFFERENCE +0.0 pp

AWAY MODEL > MARKET

AD Castro Daire

STOCHASTICBET 33.5%

PINNACLE 30.9% odd 2.89

DIFFERENCE +2.6 pp

STOCHASTICBET

PINNACLE MARKET

Market · PINNACLE Snapshot · 08 Nov 2026 · 04:31

PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

AD Castro Daire has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guarda Desportiva AD Castro Daire

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours AD Castro Daire, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guarda Desportiva AD Castro Daire

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.0

AD Castro Daire has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guarda Desportiva AD Castro Daire

The combined recent performance profile favours AD Castro Daire.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.