Guarda Desportiva vs AD Camacha

13 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Guarda Desportiva

AD Camacha

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 31.6% AWAY 34.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.2% 3.09 DRAW 31.1% 3.10 AWAY 37.8% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Guarda Desportiva relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.0% win probability, compared with 31.2% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AD Camacha

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guarda Desportiva AD Camacha

Shots 6.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours AD Camacha, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guarda Desportiva AD Camacha

Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Guarda Desportiva has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guarda Desportiva AD Camacha

The combined recent performance profile favours Guarda Desportiva.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Guarda Desportiva ↑ +0.44 (+16.6%)

AD Camacha ↑ +0.05 (+2.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.