UD Sousense vs Uniao de Lamas

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

UD Sousense

Uniao de Lamas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.4% DRAW 28.5% AWAY 49.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.5% 3.64 DRAW 29.0% 3.20 AWAY 45.5% 2.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Uniao de Lamas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.2% win probability, compared with 45.5% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Uniao de Lamas has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD Sousense Uniao de Lamas

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Uniao de Lamas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD Sousense Uniao de Lamas

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Uniao de Lamas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD Sousense Uniao de Lamas

The combined recent performance profile favours Uniao de Lamas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

UD Sousense ↑ +0.59 (+19.1%)

Uniao de Lamas ↓ -0.18 (-8.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.