Naval 1893 vs Alverca B

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Naval 1893

Alverca B

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.6% DRAW 27.8% AWAY 18.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.7% 1.80 DRAW 27.9% 3.40 AWAY 19.4% 4.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Naval 1893

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Naval 1893 Alverca B

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Naval 1893, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Naval 1893 Alverca B

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Naval 1893 Alverca B

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Naval 1893 = (0.0%)

Alverca B ↑ +0.89 (+22.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.