UD da Serra vs Mortagua FC

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

UD da Serra

Mortagua FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.4% DRAW 29.3% AWAY 26.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.6% 2.15 DRAW 29.3% 3.20 AWAY 27.1% 3.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UD da Serra

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD da Serra Mortagua FC

Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours UD da Serra, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD da Serra Mortagua FC

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD da Serra Mortagua FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

UD da Serra ↑ +0.10 (+4.9%)

Mortagua FC ↑ +0.26 (+8.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.