Fazendense vs O Elvas

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Fazendense

O Elvas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.6% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 51.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 20.6% 4.49 DRAW 26.5% 3.50 AWAY 52.9% 1.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fazendense O Elvas

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fazendense O Elvas

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 1.0

O Elvas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fazendense O Elvas

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Fazendense ↑ +1.87 (+71.0%)

O Elvas ↓ -0.90 (-34.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.