Benfica e Castelo Branco vs AD Nogueirense

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Benfica e Castelo Branco

AD Nogueirense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.8% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 26.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.0% 2.05 DRAW 28.8% 3.20 AWAY 26.2% 3.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Benfica e Castelo Branco

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Benfica e Castelo Branco AD Nogueirense

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 7.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Benfica e Castelo Branco AD Nogueirense

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Benfica e Castelo Branco AD Nogueirense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Benfica e Castelo Branco ↓ -0.43 (-17.3%)

AD Nogueirense ↑ +0.82 (+30.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.