GD Os Nazarenos vs CF Os Marialvas

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

GD Os Nazarenos

CF Os Marialvas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.3% DRAW 26.4% AWAY 56.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.9% 4.69 DRAW 27.2% 3.42 AWAY 52.9% 1.76

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CF Os Marialvas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.3% win probability, compared with 52.9% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CF Os Marialvas has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

GD Os Nazarenos CF Os Marialvas

Shots 6.0 · On target 1.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours CF Os Marialvas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

GD Os Nazarenos CF Os Marialvas

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.3

CF Os Marialvas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

GD Os Nazarenos CF Os Marialvas

The combined recent performance profile favours CF Os Marialvas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

GD Os Nazarenos ↑ +1.42 (+43.3%)

CF Os Marialvas ↓ -0.31 (-15.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.