Beira Mar vs AD Castro Daire

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Beira Mar

AD Castro Daire

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 65.1% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 11.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.7% 1.45 DRAW 23.5% 4.00 AWAY 11.8% 7.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Beira Mar

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Beira Mar AD Castro Daire

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 0.5 · On target 0.0

Recent attacking output favours Beira Mar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Beira Mar AD Castro Daire

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 1.0

AD Castro Daire has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Beira Mar AD Castro Daire

The combined recent performance profile favours Beira Mar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Beira Mar ↓ -0.47 (-24.5%)

AD Castro Daire ↑ +4.19 (+111.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.