Salgueiros vs AD Machico

04 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Salgueiros

AD Machico

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.6% DRAW 29.4% AWAY 27.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.1% 2.00 DRAW 29.1% 3.10 AWAY 25.8% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: AD Machico

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Salgueiros AD Machico

Shots 12.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Salgueiros AD Machico

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 1.8

AD Machico has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Salgueiros AD Machico

The combined recent performance profile favours AD Machico.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Salgueiros = (0.0%)

AD Machico = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.