Montalegre vs Maia Lidador

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Montalegre

Maia Lidador

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.0% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 25.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.4% 2.05 DRAW 29.1% 3.20 AWAY 25.6% 3.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Montalegre

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Montalegre Maia Lidador

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 5.5 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Montalegre, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Montalegre Maia Lidador

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Maia Lidador has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Montalegre Maia Lidador

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Montalegre ↓ -0.20 (-8.9%)

Maia Lidador ↑ +0.77 (+26.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.