Al Gharafa Reserves vs Al-Mu'aidar

07 Sep 2026 · 18:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Al Gharafa Reserves

Al-Mu'aidar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.2% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 52.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.5% 3.25 DRAW 23.8% 3.75 AWAY 48.7% 1.83

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al-Mu'aidar relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.1% win probability, compared with 48.7% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al-Mu'aidar

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Gharafa Reserves Al-Mu'aidar

Shots 1.0 · On target 0.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Al-Mu'aidar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Gharafa Reserves Al-Mu'aidar

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Al Gharafa Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Gharafa Reserves Al-Mu'aidar

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Mu'aidar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Al Gharafa Reserves = (0.0%)

Al-Mu'aidar = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.