Treviso vs Desenzano

21 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Treviso

Desenzano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.0% DRAW 31.3% AWAY 21.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.0% 2.08 DRAW 31.2% 3.00 AWAY 23.8% 3.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Treviso has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Treviso Desenzano

Shots 10.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Treviso Desenzano

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Treviso has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Treviso Desenzano

The combined recent performance profile favours Treviso.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Treviso ↑ +0.08 (+4.0%)

Desenzano ↓ -0.19 (-4.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.