Novara vs A.C. Ospitaletto

26 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Novara

A.C. Ospitaletto

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.1% DRAW 30.3% AWAY 31.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% 2.30 DRAW 30.0% 3.14 AWAY 29.1% 3.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

A.C. Ospitaletto has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Novara A.C. Ospitaletto

Shots 9.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours A.C. Ospitaletto, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Novara A.C. Ospitaletto

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.0

A.C. Ospitaletto has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Novara A.C. Ospitaletto

The combined recent performance profile favours A.C. Ospitaletto.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Novara ↑ +0.05 (+2.2%)

A.C. Ospitaletto ↑ +0.33 (+11.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.