Cittadella vs Lecco

26 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Cittadella

Lecco

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.9% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 18.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.0% 1.77 DRAW 25.6% 3.80 AWAY 19.4% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lecco

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cittadella Lecco

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cittadella Lecco

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cittadella Lecco

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Cittadella ↑ +0.17 (+10.6%)

Lecco = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.