Novara vs US Pergolettese

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Novara

US Pergolettese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.5% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 19.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.1% 1.88 DRAW 28.5% 3.30 AWAY 21.4% 4.39

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Novara has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Novara US Pergolettese

Shots 10.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 6.3 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Novara, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Novara US Pergolettese

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Novara US Pergolettese

The combined recent performance profile favours Novara.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Novara ↓ -0.17 (-8.4%)

US Pergolettese ↑ +0.99 (+29.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.