Renate vs Novara

07 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Renate

Novara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.6% DRAW 30.8% AWAY 29.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.5% 2.44 DRAW 30.6% 3.07 AWAY 30.8% 3.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Renate

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Renate Novara

Shots 10.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Renate Novara

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Renate Novara

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Renate ↑ +0.19 (+8.4%)

Novara ↑ +0.12 (+3.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.