Catania vs Scafatese

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Catania

Scafatese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.7% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 13.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.9% 1.57 DRAW 24.4% 3.91 AWAY 14.7% 6.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Catania relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.7% win probability, compared with 60.9% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Catania

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Catania Scafatese

Shots 13.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 6.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Catania, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Catania Scafatese

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Catania Scafatese

The combined recent performance profile favours Catania.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Catania ↑ +0.13 (+9.0%)

Scafatese ↑ +0.27 (+4.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.