IF Gnistan (W) vs HPS (W)

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

IF Gnistan (W)

HPS (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 16.2% DRAW 18.4% AWAY 65.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 17.3% 5.70 DRAW 19.7% 5.00 AWAY 63.1% 1.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

HPS (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

IF Gnistan (W) HPS (W)

Shots 5.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 10.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours HPS (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

IF Gnistan (W) HPS (W)

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.0

HPS (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

IF Gnistan (W) HPS (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours HPS (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

IF Gnistan (W) ↑ +1.35 (+31.0%)

HPS (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.