Ilves (W) vs HJK (W)

12 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Ilves (W)

HJK (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 10.7% DRAW 15.5% AWAY 73.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.3% 9.00 DRAW 16.0% 5.80 AWAY 73.7% 1.26

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: HJK (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ilves (W) HJK (W)

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 15.3 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours HJK (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ilves (W) HJK (W)

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ilves (W) HJK (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ilves (W) = (0.0%)

HJK (W) ↑ +0.07 (+5.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.