AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara

07 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

AD Carmelita

Pitbulls Santa Barbara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 28.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.4% 2.20 DRAW 28.1% 3.40 AWAY 28.6% 3.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AD Carmelita

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

AD Carmelita Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Shots 12.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours AD Carmelita, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AD Carmelita Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Pitbulls Santa Barbara has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AD Carmelita Pitbulls Santa Barbara

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

AD Carmelita ↓ -0.08 (-3.5%)

Pitbulls Santa Barbara ↑ +0.62 (+22.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.