AD Carmelita vs Santa Ana

26 Sep 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

AD Carmelita

Santa Ana

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.5% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 33.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% 2.40 DRAW 27.5% 3.30 AWAY 34.7% 2.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: AD Carmelita

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

AD Carmelita Santa Ana

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 15.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AD Carmelita Santa Ana

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AD Carmelita Santa Ana

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

AD Carmelita ↑ +0.03 (+1.1%)

Santa Ana ↑ +0.07 (+2.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.