Potenza vs Cavese

20 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Potenza

Cavese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.3% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 22.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% 1.85 DRAW 26.0% 3.62 AWAY 23.0% 4.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Potenza

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Potenza Cavese

Shots 14.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Potenza, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Potenza Cavese

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Cavese has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Potenza Cavese

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Potenza ↓ -0.30 (-14.0%)

Cavese ↑ +1.00 (+32.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.