Casarano vs Audace Cerignola

15 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Casarano

Audace Cerignola

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.5% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 32.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% 2.20 DRAW 26.3% 3.61 AWAY 30.5% 3.11

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Audace Cerignola

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Casarano Audace Cerignola

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Casarano Audace Cerignola

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Audace Cerignola has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Casarano Audace Cerignola

The combined recent performance profile favours Audace Cerignola.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Casarano ↑ +0.05 (+2.3%)

Audace Cerignola ↑ +0.26 (+9.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.