Bari vs Potenza

15 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Bari

Potenza

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.7% DRAW 29.0% AWAY 24.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.5% 2.00 DRAW 28.8% 3.30 AWAY 23.7% 4.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Potenza

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bari Potenza

Shots 9.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.3 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Potenza, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bari Potenza

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Bari has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bari Potenza

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bari ↑ +0.20 (+11.1%)

Potenza ↑ +0.26 (+6.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.