Potenza vs Monopoli

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Potenza

Monopoli

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 29.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.0% 2.33 DRAW 29.8% 3.20 AWAY 29.2% 3.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Potenza

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Potenza Monopoli

Shots 14.3 · On target 7.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Potenza, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Potenza Monopoli

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Monopoli has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Potenza Monopoli

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Potenza ↑ +0.33 (+16.5%)

Monopoli ↑ +0.08 (+2.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.