Giugliano vs Sorrento Calcio

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Giugliano

Sorrento Calcio

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.7% DRAW 31.1% AWAY 25.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.29 DRAW 31.1% 2.95 AWAY 28.8% 3.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Giugliano relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.7% win probability, compared with 40.1% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Giugliano has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Giugliano Sorrento Calcio

Shots 15.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Giugliano, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Giugliano Sorrento Calcio

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Giugliano has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Giugliano Sorrento Calcio

The combined recent performance profile favours Giugliano.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Giugliano ↓ -0.06 (-2.6%)

Sorrento Calcio ↑ +0.30 (+10.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.